2024 Senate · Washington
PPP · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 571 respondents · IVR/Text · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 38%
D+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 59.09% · Republican 40.64%
D+18.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 38 = 15.00
- Actual margin = 59.086 − 40.636 = 18.450
- Signed miss = 15.00 − (18.450) = -3.450
- Absolute miss = |-3.450| = 3.450
The poll overstated the Republican by 3.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88766, race ID 9533 (538 database).
population: lv