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2024 Governor · Washington

PPP · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 571 respondents · IVR/Text · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 41%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.51% · Republican 44.28%

D+11.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 41 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.508 − 44.280 = 11.228
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (11.228) = -4.228
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.228| = 4.228

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 governor_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88766, race ID 9546 (538 database).

population: lv