2024 President · Oregon
PPP · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 716 respondents · IVR/Text · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 41%
D+12.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.27% · Republican 40.97%
D+14.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 41 = 12.00
- Actual margin = 55.273 − 40.966 = 14.307
- Signed miss = 12.00 − (14.307) = -2.307
- Absolute miss = |-2.307| = 2.307
The poll overstated the Republican by 2.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88767, race ID 8869 (538 database).
population: lv