2024 President · Florida
RMG Research · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 788 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 52%
R+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.99% · Republican 56.09%
R+13.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 52 = -5.00
- Actual margin = 42.988 − 56.088 = -13.100
- Signed miss = -5.00 − (-13.100) = 8.100
- Absolute miss = |8.100| = 8.100
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88769, race ID 8778 (538 database).
population: lv