2024 Senate · Florida
RMG Research · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 788 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 52%
R+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.79% · Republican 55.57%
R+12.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 52 = -8.00
- Actual margin = 42.790 − 55.568 = -12.778
- Signed miss = -8.00 − (-12.778) = 4.778
- Absolute miss = |4.778| = 4.778
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88769, race ID 9509 (538 database).
population: lv