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2024 President · South Carolina

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 41.6% · Republican 58.4%

R+16.8

The certified result

Democrat 40.36% · Republican 58.23%

R+17.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41.6 − 58.4 = -16.80
  2. Actual margin = 40.361 − 58.229 = -17.868
  3. Signed miss = -16.80 − (-17.868) = 1.068
  4. Absolute miss = |1.068| = 1.068

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88770, race ID 8880 (538 database).

population: lv