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2024 President · Georgia

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49.3% · Republican 50.7%

R+1.4

The certified result

Democrat 48.52% · Republican 50.72%

R+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.3 − 50.7 = -1.40
  2. Actual margin = 48.525 − 50.717 = -2.192
  3. Signed miss = -1.40 − (-2.192) = 0.792
  4. Absolute miss = |0.792| = 0.792

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88771, race ID 8781 (538 database).

population: lv