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2024 President · national

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.9% · Republican 51.1%

R+2.2

The certified result

Democrat 48.33% · Republican 49.80%

R+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.9 − 51.1 = -2.20
  2. Actual margin = 48.326 − 49.798 = -1.472
  3. Signed miss = -2.20 − (-1.472) = -0.728
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.728| = 0.728

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88772, race ID 8914 (538 database).

population: lv

actual: national share computed from summed statewide votes