2024 Senate · California
ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-18 (18 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel
The poll said
Democrat 63.4% · Republican 36.6%
D+26.8
The certified result
Democrat 58.87% · Republican 41.13%
D+17.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 63.4 − 36.6 = 26.80
- Actual margin = 58.873 − 41.127 = 17.746
- Signed miss = 26.80 − (17.746) = 9.055
- Absolute miss = |9.055| = 9.055
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88791, race ID 9506 (538 database).
population: lv