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2024 Senate · Tennessee

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-18 (18 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 38.7% · Republican 61.3%

R+22.6

The certified result

Democrat 34.16% · Republican 63.80%

R+29.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38.7 − 61.3 = -22.60
  2. Actual margin = 34.162 − 63.796 = -29.634
  3. Signed miss = -22.60 − (-29.634) = 7.034
  4. Absolute miss = |7.034| = 7.034

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88792, race ID 9529 (538 database).

population: lv