2024 President · Colorado
ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-19 (17 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel
The poll said
Democrat 58.7% · Republican 41.3%
D+17.4
The certified result
Democrat 54.13% · Republican 43.14%
D+11.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 58.7 − 41.3 = 17.40
- Actual margin = 54.128 − 43.143 = 10.985
- Signed miss = 17.40 − (10.985) = 6.415
- Absolute miss = |6.415| = 6.415
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88803, race ID 8765 (538 database).
population: lv