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2024 President · Oklahoma

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-19 (17 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 33.9% · Republican 66.1%

R+32.2

The certified result

Democrat 31.90% · Republican 66.16%

R+34.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 33.9 − 66.1 = -32.20
  2. Actual margin = 31.899 − 66.162 = -34.263
  3. Signed miss = -32.20 − (-34.263) = 2.063
  4. Absolute miss = |2.063| = 2.063

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88804, race ID 8866 (538 database).

population: lv