2024 President · national
Suffolk · fieldwork ended 2024-10-18 (18 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 45.3% · Republican 44.4%
D+0.9
The certified result
Democrat 48.33% · Republican 49.80%
R+1.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45.3 − 44.4 = 0.90
- Actual margin = 48.326 − 49.798 = -1.472
- Signed miss = 0.90 − (-1.472) = 2.372
- Absolute miss = |2.372| = 2.372
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88805, race ID 8914 (538 database).
This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.
population: lv
actual: national share computed from summed statewide votes