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2024 President · Pennsylvania

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2024-10-19 (17 days before the election) · 1,084 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Opt-In Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 43.3% · Republican 46.3%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.66% · Republican 50.37%

R+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.3 − 46.3 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.663 − 50.373 = -1.710
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-1.710) = -1.290
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.290| = 1.290

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88807, race ID 8872 (538 database).

population: lv