2024 President · Florida
U. North Florida · fieldwork ended 2024-10-18 (18 days before the election) · 977 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 53%
R+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.99% · Republican 56.09%
R+13.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 53 = -10.00
- Actual margin = 42.988 − 56.088 = -13.100
- Signed miss = -10.00 − (-13.100) = 3.100
- Absolute miss = |3.100| = 3.100
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88808, race ID 8778 (538 database).
population: lv