2024 Senate · Florida
U. North Florida · fieldwork ended 2024-10-18 (18 days before the election) · 977 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 49%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.79% · Republican 55.57%
R+12.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 49 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 42.790 − 55.568 = -12.778
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (-12.778) = 9.778
- Absolute miss = |9.778| = 9.778
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88808, race ID 9509 (538 database).
population: lv