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2024 President · Georgia

Washington Post/George Mason University · fieldwork ended 2024-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 730 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web/Email/Mail-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 44%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.52% · Republican 50.72%

R+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 44 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.525 − 50.717 = -2.192
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (-2.192) = 8.192
  4. Absolute miss = |8.192| = 8.192

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88810, race ID 8781 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: rv