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2024 President · North Carolina

Washington Post/George Mason University · fieldwork ended 2024-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 965 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web/Email/Mail-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 49%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.65% · Republican 50.86%

R+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 49 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.645 − 50.857 = -3.212
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-3.212) = -0.788
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.788| = 0.788

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88813, race ID 8839 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: rv