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2024 President · Florida

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-20 (16 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45.4% · Republican 54.6%

R+9.2

The certified result

Democrat 42.99% · Republican 56.09%

R+13.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.4 − 54.6 = -9.20
  2. Actual margin = 42.988 − 56.088 = -13.100
  3. Signed miss = -9.20 − (-13.100) = 3.900
  4. Absolute miss = |3.900| = 3.900

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88817, race ID 8778 (538 database).

population: lv