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2024 Senate · Florida

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-20 (16 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.1% · Republican 51.9%

R+3.8

The certified result

Democrat 42.79% · Republican 55.57%

R+12.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.1 − 51.9 = -3.80
  2. Actual margin = 42.790 − 55.568 = -12.778
  3. Signed miss = -3.80 − (-12.778) = 8.978
  4. Absolute miss = |8.978| = 8.978

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88818, race ID 9509 (538 database).

population: lv