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2024 Senate · Ohio

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-20 (16 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.1% · Republican 51.9%

R+3.8

The certified result

Democrat 46.47% · Republican 50.09%

R+3.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.1 − 51.9 = -3.80
  2. Actual margin = 46.470 − 50.089 = -3.619
  3. Signed miss = -3.80 − (-3.619) = -0.181
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.181| = 0.181

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88819, race ID 9526 (538 database).

population: lv