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2024 Governor · Washington

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-20 (16 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 58.1% · Republican 41.9%

D+16.2

The certified result

Democrat 55.51% · Republican 44.28%

D+11.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58.1 − 41.9 = 16.20
  2. Actual margin = 55.508 − 44.280 = 11.228
  3. Signed miss = 16.20 − (11.228) = 4.972
  4. Absolute miss = |4.972| = 4.972

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 governor_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88820, race ID 9546 (538 database).

population: lv