2024 Senate · New Mexico
Research & Polling · fieldwork ended 2024-10-18 (18 days before the election) · 1,024 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 40%
D+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.06% · Republican 44.94%
D+10.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 40 = 11.00
- Actual margin = 55.057 − 44.943 = 10.114
- Signed miss = 11.00 − (10.114) = 0.887
- Absolute miss = |0.887| = 0.887
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88821, race ID 9523 (538 database).
population: lv