2024 House · New Mexico
Research & Polling · fieldwork ended 2024-10-18 (18 days before the election) · 360 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 36%
D+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.37% · Republican 43.63%
D+12.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 36 = 17.00
- Actual margin = 56.369 − 43.631 = 12.738
- Signed miss = 17.00 − (12.738) = 4.263
- Absolute miss = |4.263| = 4.263
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88821, race ID 9795 (538 database).
population: lv