2024 House · New Mexico
Research & Polling · fieldwork ended 2024-10-18 (18 days before the election) · 344 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 35%
D+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.28% · Republican 43.72%
D+12.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 35 = 17.00
- Actual margin = 56.285 − 43.715 = 12.570
- Signed miss = 17.00 − (12.570) = 4.429
- Absolute miss = |4.429| = 4.429
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88821, race ID 9797 (538 database).
population: lv