2024 President · South Dakota
Mason-Dixon · fieldwork ended 2024-10-16 (20 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 33% · Republican 59%
R+26.0
The certified result
Democrat 34.24% · Republican 63.43%
R+29.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 33 − 59 = -26.00
- Actual margin = 34.239 − 63.434 = -29.195
- Signed miss = -26.00 − (-29.195) = 3.195
- Absolute miss = |3.195| = 3.195
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88822, race ID 8883 (538 database).
population: rv