2024 House · South Dakota
Mason-Dixon · fieldwork ended 2024-10-16 (20 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 24% · Republican 61%
R+37.0
The certified result
Democrat 27.96% · Republican 72.04%
R+44.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 24 − 61 = -37.00
- Actual margin = 27.956 − 72.044 = -44.088
- Signed miss = -37.00 − (-44.088) = 7.089
- Absolute miss = |7.089| = 7.089
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88822, race ID 9892 (538 database).
population: rv