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2024 House · Michigan

NMB Research · fieldwork ended 2024-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 400 respondents · method not reported · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 41%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.25% · Republican 44.61%

D+6.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 41 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.253 − 44.613 = 6.640
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (6.640) = -7.639
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.639| = 7.639

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88826, race ID 9745 (538 database).

population: lv