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2024 House · Florida

St. Pete Polls · fieldwork ended 2024-10-20 (16 days before the election) · 905 respondents · IVR/Text

The poll said

Democrat 45.9% · Republican 45.9%

even

The certified result

Democrat 45.17% · Republican 54.82%

R+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.9 − 45.9 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.173 − 54.820 = -9.647
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-9.647) = 9.647
  4. Absolute miss = |9.647| = 9.647

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.6 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88827, race ID 9639 (538 database).

population: lv