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2024 President · Arizona

Redfield & Wilton Strategies · fieldwork ended 2024-10-18 (18 days before the election) · 691 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 49%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.69% · Republican 52.22%

R+5.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 49 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.690 − 52.217 = -5.527
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-5.527) = 2.527
  4. Absolute miss = |2.527| = 2.527

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88828, race ID 8759 (538 database).

population: lv