2024 Senate · Nevada
Redfield & Wilton Strategies · fieldwork ended 2024-10-18 (18 days before the election) · 529 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 41%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.87% · Republican 46.22%
D+1.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 41 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 47.866 − 46.223 = 1.643
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (1.643) = 5.357
- Absolute miss = |5.357| = 5.357
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88831, race ID 9521 (538 database).
population: lv