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2024 President · North Carolina

Redfield & Wilton Strategies · fieldwork ended 2024-10-18 (18 days before the election) · 843 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 48%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.65% · Republican 50.86%

R+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 48 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.645 − 50.857 = -3.212
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-3.212) = 0.212
  4. Absolute miss = |0.212| = 0.212

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88833, race ID 8839 (538 database).

population: lv