2024 House · Michigan
Glengariff Group Inc. · fieldwork ended 2024-10-16 (20 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 43.6% · Republican 47.4%
R+3.8
The certified result
Democrat 44.99% · Republican 51.13%
R+6.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43.6 − 47.4 = -3.80
- Actual margin = 44.995 − 51.125 = -6.130
- Signed miss = -3.80 − (-6.130) = 2.331
- Absolute miss = |2.331| = 2.331
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88839, race ID 9747 (538 database).
population: lv