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2024 President · New York

Siena · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 872 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 37%

D+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.91% · Republican 43.31%

D+12.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 37 = 17.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.906 − 43.315 = 12.591
  3. Signed miss = 17.00 − (12.591) = 4.409
  4. Absolute miss = |4.409| = 4.409

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88841, race ID 8860 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: lv