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2024 President · Nevada

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2024-10-20 (16 days before the election) · 800 respondents · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 47.7% · Republican 47.9%

R+0.2

The certified result

Democrat 47.49% · Republican 50.59%

R+3.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.7 − 47.9 = -0.20
  2. Actual margin = 47.493 − 50.592 = -3.099
  3. Signed miss = -0.20 − (-3.099) = 2.899
  4. Absolute miss = |2.899| = 2.899

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88842, race ID 8857 (538 database).

population: lv