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2024 Senate · Nevada

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2024-10-20 (16 days before the election) · 800 respondents · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 48.2% · Republican 43.9%

D+4.3

The certified result

Democrat 47.87% · Republican 46.22%

D+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.2 − 43.9 = 4.30
  2. Actual margin = 47.866 − 46.223 = 1.643
  3. Signed miss = 4.30 − (1.643) = 2.657
  4. Absolute miss = |2.657| = 2.657

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88842, race ID 9521 (538 database).

population: lv