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2024 President · Arizona

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2024-10-20 (16 days before the election) · 800 respondents · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 49.5%

R+2.5

The certified result

Democrat 46.69% · Republican 52.22%

R+5.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 49.5 = -2.50
  2. Actual margin = 46.690 − 52.217 = -5.527
  3. Signed miss = -2.50 − (-5.527) = 3.027
  4. Absolute miss = |3.027| = 3.027

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88843, race ID 8759 (538 database).

population: lv