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2024 President · Michigan

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2024-10-20 (16 days before the election) · 1,090 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Opt-In Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 44.2% · Republican 46%

R+1.8

The certified result

Democrat 48.31% · Republican 49.73%

R+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.2 − 46 = -1.80
  2. Actual margin = 48.313 − 49.727 = -1.414
  3. Signed miss = -1.80 − (-1.414) = -0.386
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.386| = 0.386

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88845, race ID 8820 (538 database).

population: lv