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2024 Senate · Michigan

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2024-10-20 (16 days before the election) · 1,090 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Opt-In Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46.4% · Republican 45%

D+1.4

The certified result

Democrat 48.64% · Republican 48.30%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.4 − 45 = 1.40
  2. Actual margin = 48.639 − 48.298 = 0.341
  3. Signed miss = 1.40 − (0.341) = 1.059
  4. Absolute miss = |1.059| = 1.059

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88845, race ID 9515 (538 database).

population: lv