2024 House · New York
Siena · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 532 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 41%
D+12.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.06% · Republican 48.77%
D+2.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 41 = 12.00
- Actual margin = 51.065 − 48.774 = 2.291
- Signed miss = 12.00 − (2.291) = 9.709
- Absolute miss = |9.709| = 9.709
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88849, race ID 9801 (538 database).
population: lv