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2024 Governor · North Carolina

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2024-10-20 (16 days before the election) · 1,164 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 34%

D+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.90% · Republican 40.08%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 34 = 16.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.895 − 40.084 = 14.811
  3. Signed miss = 16.00 − (14.811) = 1.189
  4. Absolute miss = |1.189| = 1.189

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 governor_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88866, race ID 9502 (538 database).

population: rv