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2024 President · North Carolina

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2024-10-20 (16 days before the election) · 800 respondents · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 46.8% · Republican 48.7%

R+1.9

The certified result

Democrat 47.65% · Republican 50.86%

R+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.8 − 48.7 = -1.90
  2. Actual margin = 47.645 − 50.857 = -3.212
  3. Signed miss = -1.90 − (-3.212) = 1.312
  4. Absolute miss = |1.312| = 1.312

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88870, race ID 8839 (538 database).

population: lv