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2024 President · Maryland

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-21 (15 days before the election) · 865 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 64% · Republican 34.4%

D+29.6

The certified result

Democrat 62.62% · Republican 34.08%

D+28.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 64 − 34.4 = 29.60
  2. Actual margin = 62.619 − 34.083 = 28.536
  3. Signed miss = 29.60 − (28.536) = 1.064
  4. Absolute miss = |1.064| = 1.064

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88875, race ID 8814 (538 database).

population: lv