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2024 Senate · Maryland

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-21 (15 days before the election) · 865 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 56.6% · Republican 43.4%

D+13.2

The certified result

Democrat 54.64% · Republican 42.84%

D+11.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56.6 − 43.4 = 13.20
  2. Actual margin = 54.641 − 42.840 = 11.801
  3. Signed miss = 13.20 − (11.801) = 1.398
  4. Absolute miss = |1.398| = 1.398

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88875, race ID 9513 (538 database).

population: lv