2024 House · Virginia
Christopher Newport U. · fieldwork ended 2024-10-20 (16 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 46%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.90% · Republican 50.74%
R+3.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 46 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 46.896 − 50.738 = -3.842
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (-3.842) = 2.842
- Absolute miss = |2.842| = 2.842
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88884, race ID 9947 (538 database).
population: lv