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2024 President · Georgia

Morning Consult · fieldwork ended 2024-10-20 (16 days before the election) · 914 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 47%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.52% · Republican 50.72%

R+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.525 − 50.717 = -2.192
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-2.192) = 3.192
  4. Absolute miss = |3.192| = 3.192

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88900, race ID 8781 (538 database).

This poll asked 4 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: rv