2024 President · California
PPIC · fieldwork ended 2024-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 1,137 respondents · Probability Panel
The poll said
Democrat 59% · Republican 33%
D+26.0
The certified result
Democrat 58.47% · Republican 38.33%
D+20.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 59 − 33 = 26.00
- Actual margin = 58.468 − 38.333 = 20.135
- Signed miss = 26.00 − (20.135) = 5.865
- Absolute miss = |5.865| = 5.865
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88908, race ID 8762 (538 database).
population: lv