2024 Senate · California
PPIC · fieldwork ended 2024-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 1,137 respondents · Probability Panel
The poll said
Democrat 63% · Republican 37%
D+26.0
The certified result
Democrat 58.87% · Republican 41.13%
D+17.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 63 − 37 = 26.00
- Actual margin = 58.873 − 41.127 = 17.746
- Signed miss = 26.00 − (17.746) = 8.255
- Absolute miss = |8.255| = 8.255
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88908, race ID 9506 (538 database).
population: lv