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2024 Senate · Pennsylvania

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 860 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 46.9% · Republican 45.5%

D+1.4

The certified result

Democrat 48.60% · Republican 48.82%

R+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.9 − 45.5 = 1.40
  2. Actual margin = 48.601 − 48.818 = -0.217
  3. Signed miss = 1.40 − (-0.217) = 1.617
  4. Absolute miss = |1.617| = 1.617

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88911, race ID 9527 (538 database).

population: lv