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2024 President · North Carolina

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 950 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 48.2% · Republican 50.2%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.65% · Republican 50.86%

R+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.2 − 50.2 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.645 − 50.857 = -3.212
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-3.212) = 1.212
  4. Absolute miss = |1.212| = 1.212

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88912, race ID 8839 (538 database).

population: lv